If the government caps lending, will universities lower prices? This is the Bennett Hypothesis in reverse: the theory that unlimited federal aid enabled tuition inflation, so capping aid should deflate it.
Our data tests this theory directly. The question is simple: how large a tuition cut would each program need to eliminate the funding gap entirely? The table below covers the same 11 program types used in the Market Scale analysis, representing the largest contributors to the aggregate funding gap.
| Program | Cap | Median COA | Median Tuition | Tuition After 20% Cut | COA After 20% Cut | Remaining Gap | Cut to Zero |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law (LLM) | $20,500 | $67,262 | $39,930 | $31,944 | $59,276 | $38,776 | 100%+ |
| Dentistry (DDS/DMD) | $50,000 | $99,869 | $62,970 | $50,376 | $87,275 | $37,275 | 79% |
| Physician Assistant (PA) | $20,500 | $60,080 | $32,568 | $26,054 | $53,566 | $33,066 | 100%+ |
| Physical Therapy (DPT) | $20,500 | $51,972 | $26,418 | $21,134 | $46,688 | $26,188 | 100%+ |
| Medicine (MD) | $50,000 | $85,614 | $53,644 | $42,915 | $74,885 | $24,885 | 66% |
| Public Health (MPH) | $20,500 | $42,862 | $18,000 | $14,400 | $39,262 | $18,762 | 100%+ |
| Nursing Doctorate (DNP) | $20,500 | $40,360 | $17,102 | $13,682 | $36,940 | $16,440 | 100%+ |
| Business (MBA) | $20,500 | $38,280 | $16,002 | $12,802 | $35,080 | $14,580 | 100%+ |
| Engineering | $20,500 | $38,234 | $17,838 | $14,270 | $34,666 | $14,166 | 99% |
| Graduate (General) | $20,500 | $33,996 | $13,939 | $11,151 | $31,208 | $10,708 | 97% |
| Law (JD) | $50,000 | $65,996 | $39,855 | $31,884 | $58,025 | $8,025 | 40% |
Fees and living expenses held constant.
As shown above, a 20% tuition reduction does not close the gap for any of the 11 program types. The median MBA illustrates: a 20% cut brings tuition from $16,002 to $12,802, but the resulting COA ($35,080) remains $14,580 above the cap. Six program types, including MBA, are marked 100%+, meaning even free tuition would not close the gap.
Law (JD) is the only program where a tuition cut alone could close the gap. At the median law school, a 40% reduction of the $39,855 tuition, roughly $16,000, would bring COA below the $50,000 cap. Graduate (General) and Engineering programs would need 97% and 99% cuts to reach their $20,500 cap, effectively zero tuition.
Author's note: This analysis uses tuition as the variable because it's the component institutions can most directly control. Health insurance and living expenses are outside institutional control.
The Fixed-Cap Ratchet
The gap figures in this report are based on 2025–2026 costs. As noted in "What the Law Actually Says," the OBBBA caps are fixed nominal dollar amounts with no inflation adjustment. If tuition holds steady and living expenses continue to rise with general inflation, the funding gap will widen each year without any policy change.