The previous sections measured the gap program by program. This section asks what it adds up to.
When per-program funding gaps are scaled against IPEDS graduate completion data (approximately 2.1 million students per year across the institutions in our dataset), the aggregate annual funding shortfall reaches an estimated $59.9 billion at sticker price, or approximately $51.8 billion after accounting for average institutional aid. The sticker-price breakdown follows; the aid adjustment is derived in "Accounting for Institutional Aid" below.
Market Scale by Program Type
| Program | Total Market/yr | Gap Market/yr | Gap Share | Students/yr | Programs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graduate (General) | $29.0B | $14.6B | 50% | 705,476 | 2,350 |
| Business (MBA) | $14.8B | $8.7B | 59% | 296,212 | 919 |
| Medicine (MD) | $6.4B | $2.7B | 42% | 74,768 | 227 |
| Law (JD) | $8.5B | $2.6B | 31% | 121,624 | 304 |
| Public Health (MPH) | $4.4B | $2.6B | 58% | 90,544 | 276 |
| Nursing Doctorate (DNP) | $4.9B | $2.6B | 52% | 114,180 | 390 |
| Dentistry (DDS/DMD) | $4.5B | $2.6B | 56% | 39,783 | 107 |
| Engineering | $4.4B | $2.4B | 54% | 97,042 | 265 |
| Law (LLM) | $3.0B | $2.2B | 74% | 37,209 | 95 |
| Physical Therapy (DPT) | $3.1B | $2.0B | 65% | 53,261 | 202 |
| Physician Assistant (PA) | $2.9B | $2.0B | 70% | 42,905 | 180 |
The Two-Tier Gap
| Tier | Students/yr | Total Market | Total Gap Market | Gap as % of Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Professional ($50K cap) | ~321,000 | $24.8B | $9.3B | 37.4% |
| Graduate ($20.5K cap) | ~1,808,000 | $87.6B | $50.6B | 57.8% |
| Grand Total | ~2,129,000 | $112.4B | $59.9B | 53.2% |
Graduate students account for $50.6 billion of the $59.9 billion gap (84.5%) despite attending less expensive programs on average, because the $20,500 cap is below the cost of nearly every graduate program in the country.
The top three program categories (general graduate studies, MBA, and medical) account for $26.0 billion, or 43.4% of the total gap.
Accounting for Institutional Aid
The $59.9 billion figure is calculated from published cost of attendance. Not every student pays full sticker price. To estimate the gap after institutional aid, we applied grant and scholarship data from the most recent National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:20, conducted by NCES for the 2019-20 academic year).
NPSAS:20 reports that 43% of all graduate students receive grants or scholarships. The distribution is uneven. Among professional students, 47% receive grants averaging $14,400. Among master's students, 40.7% receive grants averaging $8,500. Among other doctoral students, just 34% receive grants averaging $11,300. The majority of graduate students, 57%, receive no grant at all.
To estimate the aggregate effect, we computed the effective per-student grant (receipt rate multiplied by average grant) for each NPSAS category and applied it to the corresponding programs in our dataset:
| Tier | Students/yr | Effective Grant | Sticker Gap Market | Aid-Adjusted Gap Market | Reduction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Professional ($50K cap) | ~321,000 | $6,768 | $9.3B | $7.5B | -19% |
| Graduate, master's level | ~1,576,000 | $3,460 | $43.3B | $37.9B | -12% |
| Graduate, other doctoral | ~232,000 | $3,842 | $7.3B | $6.4B | -12% |
| Total | ~2,129,000 | $59.9B | $51.8B | -13% |
The aid-adjusted aggregate gap is approximately $51.8 billion per year, a reduction of $8.1 billion from the sticker-price figure. Three observations:
First, the share of programs with a gap barely changes. The effective per-student grant ($3,460 to $6,768 depending on category) is far too small to bring programs below the cap threshold. An estimated 94% of programs still have a funding gap after accounting for average institutional aid, compared to 95.2% at sticker price.
Second, clinical doctorates classified as "graduate" (PA, DPT, OT, DNP, AuD) get hit from both sides. They receive the lower $20,500 cap and a low effective grant ($3,842, reflecting the 34% receipt rate for "other doctoral" students in NPSAS). After aid adjustment, the median PA program still has a $35,738 annual gap — larger than the aid-adjusted gap at the median medical school ($35,614 sticker gap minus the $6,768 effective grant for professional students = $28,846).
Third: these are population averages, and institutional aid capacity is not evenly distributed. Harvard, with a $50 billion endowment, can offer scholarships that substantially offset its COA. A regional state university with a smaller endowment has far less capacity to discount, though it also charges less to begin with. The NPSAS average blends both extremes into a single number.
The 57% of graduate students who receive no grant or scholarship face the full sticker-price gap.
Author's note: NPSAS:20 is the most recent available federal data on graduate student financial aid (conducted every 3-4 years by NCES). The 2019-20 survey predates the OBBBA. Institutional aid patterns may shift in response to the new caps, but no systematic data yet captures those changes.
How the $51.8 Billion Relates to Actual Borrowing
The $51.8 billion measures maximum exposure across all 2.1 million graduate students, whether or not they currently borrow. In practice, only 441,000 use Grad PLUS, borrowing $15 billion per year; the majority fund costs above the Unsubsidized limit through savings, family resources, employer sponsorship, or institutional aid. Professional students retain some federal capacity under the new $50,000 cap, but graduate students lose their Grad PLUS borrowing entirely. We estimate the net federal lending displacement at approximately $11–13 billion per year.
See "Net Displacement Estimate" in the Methodology Appendix for the full derivation.